Predicting Urban Land Use Changes in Kap Choeng District of Thailand Using a CA–Markov Model

By Namfon Phramaingam and Worawit Jitsukka (Mahasarakham University) |

The National Economic and Social Development Council has developed an economic development strategy to stimulate economic activity in Thailand’s border market, leading to investment in the commercial sector at Chong Chom market. The purpose of this study is to evaluate and predict land use changes in the Kap Choeng district of Surin province, Thailand, using Theos images from 2009 and Sentinel-2 MSI images from 2019. Visual interpretation was used to characterize agricultural, forest, urban, water, and miscellaneous. Land use maps were assessed, and the CA-Markov model was used to predict the urban change in 2029. The study shows that the overall accuracy of land use maps was 90.03% in 2009 and 90.95% in 2019. Between 2009 and 2019, water covered 2.81% of the land area. Agriculture, forest, urban, and miscellaneous, on the other hand, decreased by 59.83%, 30.80%, 5.01%, and 1.55%, respectively. The number of people living in urban areas has decreased as a result of the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia between 2009 and 2019. The creation of a commercial and residential area by the government to support economic growth in the border market may have an influence on the economic activity in Chong Chom. However, because of the Chong Chom market’s assets, which include its closeness to Cambodia, the predicted urban land change in 2029 is a rise of 5.06%. Investors may feel pressured into constructing properties. Due to border market growth, the government will be compelled to boost economic activity in urban regions in the future.

Keywords: Urban land change; Land use changes; CA-Markov model; Chong Chom Market; Thailand